Has Xiaomi's stock price reached a high point and become extremely cold? The true meaning of investment can be seen from the 5-fold stock.

Investing is a practice for me and a part of life.

Can we still buy Xiaomi now? This question needs to be analyzed.

Is Xiaomi expensive now?

In January 2023, I bought Xiaomi Group at an average price of over 11 yuan per share. By February 2025, the highest intraday price of this stock had risen to 58.7 yuan. Now, it’s around 53.85 yuan (Closing Price on March 14, 2025), achieving a nearly 5-fold return. This is not only a successful investment, but also a profound practice of my long-term investment philosophy.

"Is it expensive? Can it still go up?"

The current Price-To-Earnings Ratio reflects the market’s reassessment of Xiaomi’s “technology attributes” (forecast PE of 25.9 times in 2025). If SU7 sales exceed expectations or AI products are launched, there is still room for expansion in valuation. However, we need to be vigilant against short-term overheated sentiment (influx of retail funds) and medium-term profit verification risks.

Next, I would like to share with you the true meaning of investment and discuss whether Xiaomi can still be bought today by reviewing the investment process of this 5-fold stock.

Why choose Xiaomi?

At the beginning of 2023, OpenAI just exploded in China. At that time, I happened to investigate Lenovo. Originally, I was looking at the concept of AIPC, but I experienced the scene of the smart home ecosystem in the exhibition hall, which was very experiential. Xiaomi is definitely one of the main players that cannot be ignored in the smart home industry.

More importantly, at that time, Xiaomi’s stock price was at a low level, the valuation was relatively reasonable, and the safety margin was high, so it dared to heavily invest.

With long-term and in-depth tracking and research of this company, I can always hold on and not fall behind.

1. Industry Trends: The Recovery of Consumer Electronics and the Wave of Intelligence

After several years of slump, the smartphone industry is gradually showing signs of recovery and is slowly entering a cycle of replacement.

In addition, although smartphones are Xiaomi’s core business, Xiaomi is no longer just a mobile phone company. Its ecological chain layout covers multiple fields such as smart homes, wearable devices, and electric vehicles, which are important directions for future technological development.

Especially Xiaomi’s layout in the field of intelligent electric vehicles shows huge growth potential. Although Xiaomi’s cars were not yet on the market at that time, Lei Jun’s determination and Xiaomi’s execution made me believe that this would be Xiaomi’s second growth curve in the future.

1. Company Team: The Continuation of Lei Jun’s Legend

During the investment process, I conducted in-depth research on Xiaomi’s founding process, Lei Jun’s entrepreneurial resume, and the formation process of Xiaomi’s core team.

After leaving Kingsoft and before founding Xiaomi, Lei Jun worked as a venture capitalist for a period of time. He has his own standards for selecting projects and people. He said that Xiaomi is the end point of his entrepreneurship, which represents his optimism about the mobile internet industry. During the interview with the core team, he patiently communicated repeatedly and had strict requirements. Xiaomi’s founding team is far superior to ordinary start-up teams.

Xiaomi’s mission also moved me deeply, “always insisting on making good products that touch people’s hearts and are reasonably priced, so that everyone in the world can enjoy the beautiful life brought by technology.” Lei Jun, as a legendary figure in China’s technology industry, has a broad vision, execution ability, ultimate pursuit of products, and the ability to build a user ecosystem, which makes me full of confidence in Xiaomi.

Xiaomi’s team culture emphasizes “focus, excellence, reputation, and speed”. This culture not only promotes Xiaomi’s success in the mobile phone field, but also lays a solid foundation for the expansion of its ecosystem.

1. Valuation judgment: safety margin and growth space

At that time, Xiaomi’s valuation was at a historical low, and the Price-To-Earnings Ratio was far below the industry average. Considering its diversified business layout and future growth potential, I believe this stock is undervalued and has long-term holding value.

The conflict between short-term fluctuations and long-term values

The investment process was not as smooth as it seemed. From the beginning of the purchase, the stock price was actually lukewarm for more than half a year. With the improvement of Xiaomi’s performance, in November 2023, Xiaomi’s stock price rose to more than 16 yuan. I did not choose to sell. On the one hand, I believed that the stock price had not yet reflected its value. On the other hand, I really did not like to operate all the time. Watching the market every day is definitely not something that can affect the quality of life.

1. Investment mindset: Patience is the key to long-term investment

Since Xiaomi announced its intention to make cars, there have been continuous doubts about Xiaomi’s cars in the market. People generally do not have confidence in Xiaomi’s car-making. The company has invested billions of dollars in research and development costs, and financial pressure is also high, which has put pressure on the stock price. By February 2024, the stock price had fallen to 12.5 yuan, almost back to my cost price.

During that time, my emotions were very complicated. Although I firmly believed in the long-term value of Xiaomi, facing market fluctuations and account losses, I couldn’t avoid the anxiety and unease in my heart. To be honest, I regretted not selling before.

At the same time, I personally have confidence in Lei Jun and the Xiaomi team. When Lei Jun transitioned from software to hardware, it was also very difficult. The spirit and quality demonstrated by this team in overcoming various difficulties still exist today. The important thing is not what is being done, but who is doing it. People who have experienced entrepreneurship can especially understand this.

Short-term fluctuations in stock prices often reflect market sentiment and certain consensus, but consensus is often not correct and cannot reflect the true value of the company. Moreover, Xiaomi’s core business is not bad, and temporary difficulties are actually the best time for investment.

In investment, patience is more important than intelligence. I constantly remind myself not to be disturbed by short-term fluctuations, but to focus on the long-term value of the company.

As Graham said, “The stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.” Only by adhering to long-termism can we truly share the growth dividends of high-quality enterprises.

1. Rolling position: Continuously verify investment logic, wait for flowers to bloom and harvest

During the process of holding Xiaomi afterwards, I didn’t hold it all the time and made a few moves. This may be a bit immature for me, but I still need some sense of security psychologically.

Xiaomi SU7 was released in 2024, and the market response was enthusiastic, and the stock price also rose rapidly. In May 2024, Xiaomi’s stock price rose to over 18 yuan. This time, I chose to reduce my position and lock in some profits.

The idea at that time was that the market was overheated in the short term and risks should be avoided in the short term. However, I still had confidence in Xiaomi. Although the car had come out, the performance had not yet been fully reflected. By July, the stock price had adjusted almost completely, and I had regained my positioning.

With the market evaluation of SU7 getting better and better, Lei Jun’s marketing and personal IP continued to ferment, and Xiaomi’s stock price began to rise continuously. In November 2024, when the stock price was stagnant, Xiaomi added positions again. Finally, at the end of February 2025, Xiaomi reached its highest point before the market correction.

Is the current millet high cold?

Xiaomi is now in the limelight. The pure electric car launch event is even more lively than the Spring Festival Gala. Its smartphone sales rank third in the world, and even Apple cannot stop its rise. Funds revolve around it, the media hypes it every day, and even colleagues who don’t usually trade stocks are asking, “Can Xiaomi still be bought?”

But the problem is that the direction of the market often starts to change at the busiest time.

When Tesla was at its craziest, its market value exceeded one trillion yuan; when Nvidia was at its craziest, the AI bubble was boiling; when Tencent was at its craziest, almost everyone in Hong Kong was trading stocks. What was the result? No one could escape when it fell.

Xiaomi’s trend today is somewhat similar to Tencent and Tesla in the past.

But history will not simply repeat itself.

Previously, Xiaomi was regarded as a “bargain” by the market, with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio in the single digits for a long time. Its market value has always been lukewarm. Every time Lei Jun shouts “the first XX for young people”, the stock price does not move much.

But this time, Xiaomi has changed.

It is no longer just a “cost-effective” brand, but has begun to attack the high-end market. The profit margin of mobile phones has increased, cars have been released, and the ecosystem is becoming more and more complete. Especially with the release of the SU7 Ultra, it has once again broken through the circle with impressive results.

Most importantly, Capital Markets is willing to reprice it.

If in the past the market valued it as a “counterfeit products stock”, now it is being speculated as a “technology stock”.

Can I still buy it?

There is a psychological trap here. When the stock price rises too much, people naturally think it will fall.

However, in history, stocks that have risen tenfold often start with doubling. Tesla’s Shanghai factory began producing Model 3 in October 2019. Since then, Tesla’s stock price has seen a significant increase, with an increase of up to 16 times in two years.

However, on the other hand, the pullback after the surge is often very tragic. Tesla fell from $400 to $100, Alibaba fell from HKD 300 to HKD 60, and Hong Kong technology stocks were in a mess.

So, the key issue is not “how much has it risen”, but - can it continue to rise?

There are only two things to decide whether to buy or not

One is the fundamentals - can it continue to grow in the future? If the mobile phone business continues to grab the Apple market, SU7 sells well, and if the SUV model YU7 can continue to sell well after its release, the story can still be told, and the stock price will naturally not peak.

The second is market sentiment - are funds willing to push up? Currently, in Xiaomi’s position structure, the proportion of foreign capital and institutions is increasing, while retail investors are pouring in. Historical experience shows that when there are too many retail investors, it often means that short-term risks begin to increase.

If you are a short-term trader, chasing now may cause significant fluctuations.

If you are a long-term investor, ask yourself a question: Can Xiaomi’s market value double in the next 2-3 years? If so, then the current price is not a problem.

Therefore, investors can make investment strategies according to their own situation. Here, I recommend a multi-asset trading wallet called BiyaPay. We can observe Xiaomi’s stock price at any time and trade online in real-time at the appropriate time. At the same time, it also provides the option to deposit digital currency (USDT), withdraw US dollars/Hong Kong dollars to bank accounts, and then deposit and withdraw funds to other brokerage platforms. This way, BiyaPay can be used as a professional deposit and withdrawal tool. Investing in these stocks through such a multi-asset trading wallet not only benefits us, but also facilitates investors to trade US and Hong Kong stocks, invest in diversified asset classes reasonably, and cope with future market fluctuations.

So, as for me? I have been using Xiaomi for more than 1000 days.

I won’t sell.

Finally, the market is always changing. The most important thing in investment is not to predict the rise and fall, but to know where you are and what choices to make. I wish everyone a smooth investment!